Interesting piece from BI. Are Donald Trump's runaway poll numbers actually stronger than they currently appear? Why? The reverse Bradley effect - that is, people in phone surveys are NOT telling pollsters that they'd vote for Trump even though they will end up supporting him on election day.
Reason for the theory: Trump is dominating online surveys much more than traditional polling that contacts voters via landline or by cell phone.
In 1982, California voters were supposed to elect former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley as the state's next governor.read the rest here...
Bradley went into the election with a sizable lead over George Deukmejian. Exit polls projected a Bradley win. But when the ballots were counted, Deukmejian came out the winner.
Thus, the "Bradley effect" was born — named as such because many white voters, who told pollsters they were voting for an African-American (Bradley), ended up breaking for the white candidate (Deukmejian). Could Trump be the 2016 version of a reverse "Bradley effect?"
That's the theory of a new study released earlier this week by Morning Consult, a DC-based data and technology company.
The study posited that voters, when interviewed by pollsters via telephone, are reluctant to admit their support for a controversial candidate whose critics have painted him as racist. In self-administered online interviews, on the other hand, they will be more likely to admit their support. And that will more likely reflect their eventual decision in the privacy of a voting booth.