Obama Leads in Virginia But Narrowly Over Romney


Obama's numbers slipping in Virginia


publicpolicypolling
Barack Obama's numbers are the weakest they've been in Virginia since before the 2010 election, but he still leads all of his top potential Republican opponents for next year by at least 4 points in the state.

Obama's approval is in slightly negative territory now with 47% of voters giving him good marks while 48% disapprove. On our last poll, conducted shortly after the capture of Osama bin Laden, he was at 51/44. He had also been on positive ground our previous two surveys before that. In March it was 48/45 and last November it was 50/45.

Despite his declining popularity Obama continues to lead all of the top Republican candidates in the state. It's only a 4 point advantage against Mitt Romney at 47-43 but he has pretty healthy leads against the other contenders- 9 points over both Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry at 49-40 and 48-39 respectively, an 11 point advantage over Herman Cain at 49-38, and a 14 point one over Sarah Palin at 51-37

Virgina 2012
Obama 47-Romney 43
Obama 49-Perry 40
Obama 49-Cain 38

Sorry to break the news to everybody, and I'm sure my traffic will take a hit like it did last time, but after this poll showing Sarah Palin 14 points behind Barack Obama in the must win state of Virginia I can absolutely, positively say that Sarah Palin WILL NOT, WILL NOT be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. If polling said something different I would shout it from the rooftops and polls are 400 of my 10K posts, but this is probably the 8th poll that I've posted showing her trailing by double digits in a must-win state. Virginia was carried by Bush in 2004 and 2000 by 8 points and even carried by Dole and GHW Bush when they lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and here we have Palin behind 14 points and has a 62% unfavorable rating in Virginia. I love Sarah Palin but there is zero chance that she could defeat Obama in 2012 with these kind of numbers.