GOP Primary 2012: Bachmann Leads In Oregon and Montana


If Sarah Palin is not included, Bachmann leads Romney in 2 states

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We've never found her leading one of our state polls until now but Michele Bachmann's been on fire for the last two weeks and we find her at the top of the GOP field in both Oregon and Montana when Sarah Palin's not included. That's just more indication that if Palin ends up not running Bachmann will pretty instantaneously vault to co-front runner status with Mitt Romney, provided she can continue her current momentum.

In Oregon Bachmann gets 29% to 28% for Romney, 10% for Ron Paul, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman. In Montana she leads with 25% to 22% for Romney, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 9% for Pawlenty,8% for Cain, and 4% for Huntsman.

In both states Bachmann's support is built on strong support from the far right. In Oregon moderates prefer Romney over her by a 39-15 margin and 'somewhat conservatives' ones favor him by a 29-22 margin as well. But with 'very conservative' voters, which constitute the largest share of the primary electorate at 44%, Bachmann leads 37-26 and that fuels her small overall lead. It's a similar story in Montana. Romney leads 21-13 with moderates and 26-22 with 'somewhat conservative' voters. But Bachmann is up 34-19 with 'very conservative' voters and with their constituting 39% of Republican voters that gives her the upper hand overall.
Oregon GOP 2012


Montana GOP 2012