Jon Ralston Makes Final Prediction: Harry Reid Will Beat Sharron Angle By 2 Points In Nevada Senate Race
I hope a tea party wave proves him wrong on Tuesday
RALSTON WRITES: "Reid's handlers have run one of the most spectacular campaigns in history at all levels: The turnout machine is formidable. The TV has been pitch perfect. The strategy -- to peel moderate Republicans and independents who might not like their guy away from Angle -- has worked...Video: John McCain campaigning for Sharron Angle over the weekend says "we're not scared, we're mad as hell"
In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee's primary win -- she had a double-digit lead in June polls -- were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.
One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election -- under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.
But I think he finds a way to survive. The result: Reid, 47 percent; Angle, 45 percent; rest, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent