Jon Ralston: GOP Closing in on 5 Percentage Point Edge in Clark County, But Democrats Have 14,000 Raw Vote Lead in Urban Nevada

More than 228,000 people have now voted in Clark County at the polls or by mail – 46 percent Democrats (a tick above their registration) and 38 percent Republicans (about 5 points more than their registration). Republicans now have nearly a 5 percent turnout lead in Clark – the next two days, presumably the heaviest, could be key to the U.S. Senate race.

About 54,000 people have voted early in Washoe County, with the Republicans holding a 3 percent edge. Rural tallies are harder to come by, but one knowledgeable source says the total number voted is now about 330,000, and the Republicans have under a 4 percent edge. (It was 6 percent overall in 2006, but more people proportionally will vote early this year, so it’s not apples to apples.)

It appears that 60 percent at least will vote before Tuesday, perhaps even two-thirds.
Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:

Democrats: 27.2 percent
Republicans: 31.4 percent

Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats now have a 2,200-ballot lead):

Democrats: 31.2 percent
Republicans: 36.0 percent

Total urban early vote:

Democrats: 112,944 (26.8 percent)
Republicans: 100,970 (30.5 percent)

Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):

Democrats: 126,296 (29.9 percent)
Republicans: 112,164 (33.9 percent)