Arizona 2012: Obama Trails Romney But Leads Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin and Trump

Arizona is a must win for the Republicans in 2012. It has only been carried by a Democrat in a General once (Clinton narrowly in 1996 over Dole) since 1948

Obama trails only one Republican- Mitt Romney- in a hypothetical match up in the state. Romney has a 48-44 advantage against him. This makes Arizona the third state in the last month, along with Nevada and Pennsylvania, where we've found Romney as the only Republican who leads Obama.

Romney and Mike Huckabee generally post similar numbers against Obama in our national polling but that's because Huckabee posts much larger leads than Romney against Obama in southern states that the GOP will win regardless of who the party's nominee is. Romney is clearly proving to be the stronger candidate in important swing states, meaning that for whatever it's worth he has claim to the 'electability' mantle right now.

Obama leads Huckabee by 2 points at 46-44, Newt Gingrich by 7 at 47-40, Sarah Palin by 11 at 49-38, and Donald Trump by 12 at 48-36. Arizona voters might not like Obama, but they like him better than any of these folks. Huckabee's favorability is a 35/48 spread, Palin's at 32/62, Gingrich is at 26/59, and Trump comes down at 24/66. Particularly noteworthy in Trump's numbers is that even among Republicans only 38% have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one.

We'll have to see if our polling nationally and in other key states over the next few weeks confirms it, but those numbers suggest that the Trump bubble is already starting to burst

Romney 48 Obama 44
Obama 46 Huckabee 44
Obama 47 Gingrich 40
Obama 49 Palin 38
Obama 48 Trump 36